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The Tether-Binance Axis and the Great Crypto Crash of 2022


Tether Corporation is not printing USDT for the purpose of inflating Bitcoin's price, even though it often has that effect (as explained in Friday's blog). Its original purpose was to simplify exiting positions and to facilitate transfers to/from exchanges that don’t have fiat on-boarding. But tether's purpose changed completely when it became the de-facto cryptocurrency for leverage trading on futures, notably on Binance USDT perpetuals, which account for most of the crypto futures volume this year.


Tether originally stated that each USDT token was backed 1-1 with USD, to give the impression that 1 USDT is worth 1 USD, but the backing actually serves little practical purpose. Instead the "peg" to the USD is maintained by arbitrage traders scalping cents.


Even though the market knows Tether has very few fiat reserves, this arbitrage activity is what maintains tether's USD value in a suspiciously steady fashion. As soon as the value of USDT drops a fraction of a cent below 1 USD, HFT algorithms push it back up, and vice versa. This article explains the various arbitrage mechanisms (however, the author's explanation says currency is actually transferred between exchanges, whereas in reality, professional tether scalpers run multiple USD and USDT accounts on every tether exchange).


The arbitrageurs are probably Tether themselves and associates that have vested interest in keeping the peg (more on this below). If it were truly a free market we would see larger swings in the value of USDT as the market loses faith in it, especially around big news events where their fraud is exposed.


Back to my broken record.... it is not only that Tether is fraud, but also that Binance is a scam. I am not alone in believing that the entire crypto market is in a massive leverage bubble entirely due to the unscrupulous activities of both these players. Just look at this comment from one of my website followers: "I have access to 50X leverage in my Binance account. Others have more. Some exchanges offer up to 200X. I could deposit $100,000 into my Binance account, use 50X leverage, and have an open position that contains 5m USDT tokens. We regularly see 1bn USDT prints from Tether and everyone wonders where they are getting the money from, but the truth is that - using 50X leverage - traders collectively would only need to deposit $20m into Binance to get access to 1bn USDT tokens."


If you've been reading my previous blogs you'll understand that Binance orders these USDT tokens as some kind of over-collateralised loan deal, on which Tether gets high interest, while Binance profits by taking the real fiat money from traders who lose their leveraged futures bets.


Although Binance launched their futures platform in September 2019 the mobile app only became available in December 2019. At that time Binance reported that "On average, over 60 percent of traders on Binance Futures trade at a leverage of 20X or higher. Users trading at 125X leverage account for 21 percent of total traders, on both desktop and mobile." A few months later, Tether's market cap began to sky rocket (see below). There is no doubt in my mind that the increase in Tether's market cap is a result of the growing popularity of leveraged futures trading, especially on Binance.



In a year that has seen so many Tether exposés tether's lowest price was $0.9918, less than 1 cent below the dollar. But not because traders actually believe that 1 USDT is worth 1 USD, it is because Tether themselves (and probably others with a vested interest in maining the peg, such as Binance) are arbitrage scalping. No ordinary trader would have felt comfortable arbitrage scalping USDT after the NYAG report was released.


Tether is largely unbacked -- their alleged commercial paper is not even worth the paper it's written on -- and the Tether-Binance axis is fuelling a massive leverage bubble which is inflating the value of all crypto assets. When the bubble collapses, maybe even next year, the fall-out for the institutions that are herding into bitcoin like there is no tomorrow might precipitate a financial crisis even worse than the banking crisis of 2008-9.


Carol Alexander, 14 November 2021


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Close but it's a lot more complicated. You still have to incorporate the various forms of funding and account for the fact that it's possible to earn massive passive income by maintaining "perpetual" positions indefinitely. How about 1% of your total position paid out three time a day lol... Compounded... The entire market is determined by shorts that earn this passive income. When these shorts near liquidation the market crashes.. the same people crashing the market profit off longs while inflating the price only to profit WAY more when they crash the market. Rinse and repeat.

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What you should be looking into is why binance took away the ability to make trades at lower leverage levels if a trade is already open. Because you used to be able to but it created to many dimensions for their algorithms to process in a short enough time to be able to respond and control the market.


Also the system is literally infallible. I didn't follow the rules. It's as simple as covering your longs to zero (which is done with your shorts profit), hedging with a short and using a ratio that enables profit from the long to cover the short indefinitely while maintaining a larger long then short so as again to always be able to cover…


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coalexander
coalexander
Dec 09, 2021

I believe Binance have been using the fiat currency they are supposed to have in custody to shore up the losses they make from their insurance fund. If you read further back in my blogs, and listen to the talk I did today (video will be on my talks pages soon) I put things together there...

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coalexander
coalexander
Dec 09, 2021

The Binance insurance fund -- see my previous post(s) with this title

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I’m not very clued up on this . so if you place a trade and use the leverage , and the price drops and you lose a lot of money, who is paying for that?

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If you get liquidated, you lose what you put in as collateral and the exchange's insurance fund takes on the rest of the debt.

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You need to do research on funding rates. Institutionial sized market makers that have accounts/partnerships with exchanges are there providing the liquidity in real time for traders to go long or to go short with whatever leverage. How can one go use 100x leverage who's going to risk them loosing their money? Market makers. They are their to take the opposite trade, because this is a market place when u buy something someone needs to sell it you. Market makers glady sell people the dream that they can 100x and magically make money. So when you long their taking the opposite trade going short. How does one get paid when making a successful leverage trade? Where does the money come…

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